Spreadsheets

 I remember the 80s. It may have been before your time, but that's okay. 

There was this cool new thing in the 70s -- a personal computer. People were hyping the heck out of them, and I guess they were right. There were people arguing against them, others getting on board, and others cautiously looking for good uses for this new boon. 

Someone had this cool new program for computers, starting with VisiCalc for Apple ][.  Later on, other vendors jumped in with Lotus 1-2-3, Quattro Pro, and eventually Excel. 

Anyone who could type, make lists, and do arithmetic could build a spreadsheet. 

This sounds trivial now, because you're all used to these things, but it was huge and disruptive at the time.

ANYONE who could type, make lists, and do math could have a custom program developed in minutes or hours, and didn't have to learn any programming languages, DDL, DML, file system arcana, ... none of that!

The thought at the time was that this would change the world. We would no longer need programmers or programming skills!

Anyone who can work with lists and math can "program" a spreadsheet. They could change numbers and recalculate the whole set with the push of a button (they weren't all automatic at the time). 

Quickly, they learned to add checksums and cross-checks, because anyone can overwrite any cell and it's easy to make a mistake, but as long as one exercised care, one could build accounting functions and list management, budgets, just about anything.

And you know what? It worked. It's still working.

And that's a good thing.

No, the spreadsheet is not the equivalent of a commercial accounting package, but these people wouldn't have bought one anyway; they were an unserved market. 

Yes, it was common for developers to be given a spreadsheet that had gotten out of hand and asked to write programs to replace it. That was often hard. The spreadsheets were, after all, written by amateurs and not professional programmers. Some were an awful, twisted mess.

Then programmers were asked to integrate the programs with other programs... and it wasn't a lot of fun, but we at least had proof of need and efficacy.

Then business process improvement people would come in, charge healthy fees, and rework processes that originally began as a hodgepodge of individually created and maintained spreadsheets. It was a good enough place to start.

It didn't collapse the industry, but it created new branches and specialities within it. Many people entered the software development industry through this new door.

And then came dBase, Microsoft Access, and PowerBuilder -- more powerful application building for low-code/no-code application builders. They went beyond what a spreadsheet could do, and there suddenly was a huge market for dBase II/Access/PowerBuilder "programmers" who built many useful applications. PowerBuilder was particularly successful in building a professional speciality in their tooling.

The hype was that the world wouldn't need programmers anymore, since anyone who could type and think about databases could build an app now.

And you know what? It worked. An underserved market created many apps, and many people entered the software industry through this new door.

Then came 4GLs, a step above those tools, and many people entered the software development industry through those doors; many underserved areas got the apps they needed, and a lot of us spent time converting overgrown 4GL apps into properly engineered applications. 

Now, AI is different in some ways. I get that. But I learned how to use spreadsheets, and used them to prototype ideas and do simple math. I worked for a company that used them for professional accounting work. I didn't lose my ability to code in C or BASIC at the time, and I was busier than ever.

AI will likely change the field of programming. It can produce code and accumulated liability much faster than humans have so far. But easier software construction can expand the market and will have complicated effects (making some better, some worse, etc). It will likely open up new doors for entrants to our business. It may also make some specialities short-lived. It will be "interesting times", but this industry is self-healing and has managed to absorb its threats and find ways forward.

You ask me why I am not panicking now that underserved non-software people can build their own apps with AI?

I have seen spreadsheets. They didn't kill me.